One of the most challenging aspects of a risk assessment is determining the likelihood of occurrence and impact. NIST SP 800-30 (http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/nistpubs/800-30/sp800-30.pdf and Chapter 3, NIST SP 800-14) defines the likelihood of occurrence as follows: A weighted risk factor based on an analysis of the probability that a given threat source is capable of exploiting a given vulnerability (or set of vulnerabilities).
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